Sean t rcp twitter.

Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende Of the congressional districts used in 2020, name the top 3 that swung the most toward Republicans (at the presidential level) from 2008, and the three that swung the most toward Democrats.“Basic take on the Senate: There are 5 true tossups, with a handful of states on the periphery. Most of the R states have broken away in the last couple of weeks. So, for example, Budd v. Beasley might have been an upset pick, but it is going the wrong way. 1/”Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende The losses this term were really aggressive asks on the VRA and ISL. and even there Kav and Roberts left a trail of crumbs on how to get to the desired outcome next time.“@SethAMandel @varadmehta The basic observation about Biden being boring and that making him a tough opponent is basically correct, but it is also why the attempts to shoehorn his first 100 days into a transformative, FDR-like presidency is sorta silly right now.”

. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende , dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Sean T at RCP is a free elf 2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”

Mar 29, 2018 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I …“@jibberegg @Nate_Cohn @ZachWeiner The version I came across didn't have the attribution, but I am happy to have it attached (by my replying, this should bump the comment up to the top of the comment chain). Thanks!”“And we're probably just interested in that statement for the actual fact that Trump tried to commandeer the Secret Service vehicle. Now there are about a billion exceptions to the hearsay rule. 6/”Sean Hannity is a conservative talk show host who can be heard on the radio, on his podcasts and on his own show on Fox News. There are a couple ways that you can try and get in contact with him, if you so desire.

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“Mason has been singing the same song over and over again for the past 20m in his little 8 y/o boy voice and one nice thing about having three is that I recognize that voice (and maybe the singing) will be gone in the blink of an eye. So when he stops, I ask him to sing it again.”

In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@sahilkapur @RobGeorge @EsotericCD On 2), I never understood the white hot, burning hatred of Buttigieg among younger progressives. But it is very much there.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@mattyglesias The cynical answer is that progressivism puts them in charge. The remainder are by and large libertarians, which can be deconstructed just as easily.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSep 1, 2021 · “One problem Biden has is that he doesn't have much "crawl-over-broken-glass-twice-to-vote-for-him" type support. That inoculated Obama and Trump from a total wipeout. He really could completely collapse.”

“On hearsay: First, it doesn't matter for right now, because this isn't a trial. At the same time, the hearsay rule isn't just some legal mumbo-jumbo, it's rooted in the common sense notion that you're more skeptical of evidence offered second- or third-hand. But first:”Log in. Sign up“@KevinMKruse It's possible, but he'd have to be pretty sure the leak would flip a vote, or think that it would blunt the impact of the decision in June by spreading out the news cycle (the latter is more plausible imo).”“@BenjySarlin This is one of the key reasons we have such wide bands on our "tossup" category for now. No one really knows how to model this thing.”“@ThePlumLineGS @billscher So I'm pretty comfortable saying they'd have gotten something through absent the strictures of reconciliation. And remember, with regular order you don't have to go all-or-nothing. You can do a *ton* through appropriations riders, which give nervous members cover.”

“This remains the key chart for how big GOP House gains will be: Biden vote share by the number of districts with that vote share. At R+3 or so nationally, the GOP starts to climb the levy that Democrats built with Biden +10 (or so) districts. 1/”Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "For people under 16 this is less deadly than the flu. Not even on my radar of considerations. And as I said, in a few weeks if you haven't …

It's pretty amazing that we have a grand total of 3 decent, non interest-group sponsored polls of Fetterman-Oz. 08 Aug 2022In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@KevinMKruse It's possible, but he'd have to be pretty sure the leak would flip a vote, or think that it would blunt the impact of the decision in June by spreading out the news cycle (the latter is more plausible imo).”“@mattyglesias The cynical answer is that progressivism puts them in charge. The remainder are by and large libertarians, which can be deconstructed just as easily.”Sean Hannity is a conservative talk show host who can be heard on the radio, on his podcasts and on his own show on Fox News. There are a couple ways that you can try and get in contact with him, if you so desire.“@nataliemj10 @rp_griffin Oh I think it's probably maybe 5-10% of the population (though overrepresented on social media). But I also think the motivator for a large chunk of that isn't really safety.”In this conversation. Verified account“@nataliemj10 @rp_griffin Oh I think it's probably maybe 5-10% of the population (though overrepresented on social media). But I also think the motivator for a large chunk of that isn't really safety.”Log in. Sign upIn this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users

RT @davidshor: To be more pointed - Catalist data shows that non-college voters of color have trended *enormously* toward the GOP since 2012, by similar magnitudes as non-college whites (particularly on a logit scale!).

Sean T at RCP on Twitter: "For people under 16 this is less deadly than the flu. Not even on my radar of considerations. And as I said, in a few weeks if you haven't …

The Amazon broadcast briefly zoomed in on Payton and allowed fans (and possibly opposing teams) to get a great view of his play sheet.“If you don't want to know about the horse race, it's a big internet! Lots of people write about policy. In fact, there are more of them than there are of us, in part because there's no real mystery about the types of policy the GOP will at least nominally pursue. 3/”“This histogram of Ohio precincts by Democratic share of the two-party vote really shows the Democrats' problem in a nutshell: Democrats have a significant number of precincts where Biden got 75% of the vote or more; Trump has comparatively few.”A new book about Sen. Mitt Romney details his interactions with Fox News host Sean Hannity. Romney and Hannity were allies, but the TV host turned on the …“Oh FFS. 1/”“@speechboy71 I can absolutely buy he's solid. Honestly, I just have a lawyer friend on Facebook claiming this is obviously unethical of Mueller, and I'm trying to figure out independently what the issues are. I don't know why people are going DefCon 1 …“My take: You can make a case for Phantom Menace largely because, as Machete Order proves, you can pretty much watch the entire series without it and not miss anything. But it isn't a horrible movie, though I'm the weirdo who sort of liked the Palpatine political machinations.”“But in a wave year, these will come into varying degrees of play. So if the generic ballot starts to reach R+6 or so (which is probably about right if Biden stays in the low 40s) you're suddenly in a scenario where about 30 seats suddenly come into play. 5/”Marc Thiessen: Florida, I think he went from 35% to 50% Hispanic support. We just spent four years talking about how Donald Trump hates Hispanics. Well, ...It's pretty amazing that we have a grand total of 3 decent, non interest-group sponsored polls of Fetterman-Oz. 08 Aug 2022

“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersNov 2, 2021 · “I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/” Instagram:https://instagram. o'reilly's high springsku foorballshadow doctors abroadrooms for rent yonkers craigslist Jun 5, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users rn fundamentals online practice 2019 b with ngnmarigold linton In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users my little pony friendship is magic youtube Jun 28, 2022 · “Trying to think of a more consequential shift than Barrett for Ginsburg. Maybe Black for Van Devanter in the 30s, but Roberts already flipped. Thomas for Marshall? Ginsburg-for-White next year cancels, Souter goes left.Maybe Goldberg for Frankfurter, giving Warren 5 solid votes.” Despite the tremendous amount of planning that goes into the Super Bowl, things don’t always go as expected. Not to mention, with folks taking to Twitter and TikTok these days, anything is apt to go viral — for better or worse — on the nigh...Log in. Sign up